How idea validation evolved from technical feasibility to distribution strategy in the AI era
Watch how idea validation evolved from product manager frameworks to distribution-first reality.
The Economics:
Building cost $30k minimum. Hiring developers = $10k/month. High barrier to entry = low competition.
The Validation:
The Bottleneck:
Money. Can you afford 6 months of dev costs before seeing a dollar?
The Economics:
No-code tools dropped cost to $5k-$10k. More people could build = 10x more competitors launching the same ideas.
The Validation:
The Bottleneck:
Speed. Can you ship faster than the other 50 teams building this?
The Economics:
AI drops cost to $20/month. Anyone can build in 2 weeks. 1000+ competitors clone every idea in hours. Broad markets are saturated.
The Validation:
The NEW Bottleneck:
Distribution. Can you make 50 TikToks about this? Do people know your name in this micro-niche?
Same goal (validate ideas fast), different questions. Here is what changed and why.
Building went from $30k/6 months to $20/2 weeks. Distribution stayed hard.
The filter is no longer can you afford to build it? It is can you reach the people who need it? This is why every question in the sniff test now focuses on access, credibility, and distribution capability.
How big is the problem? Would people pay to solve it?
This question was written for product managers evaluating market opportunities. "Would people pay?" assumes you're an outsider guessing at problems. In 2025, with 1000 competitors launching daily, broad problems are already solved. You can't compete on "bloggers want traffic." You need: "I'm a crypto blogger and ChatGPT summaries killed my traffic - here's what I built." Specific niche, personal story, lived expertise.
Name 3 video hooks you would put your face on, OR your faceless brand name.
Software is $20/month now, not $50k. Every niche problem has 5 competitors already. You can't win broad. You win by going hyper-narrow: "Salesforce for orthodontists" not "CRM software." The shift: PMs evaluated markets → Builders solve their own daily work problems. If you can't put your face on 50 TikToks about YOUR specific version of this pain, algorithms won't surface you. You need lived expertise in a micro-niche, not market research on a broad problem.
Is this something you would be willing to work on long-term?
This was for PMs picking ideas from a list. "Am I willing to work on this?" means you don't live this problem daily. Solo builders in 2025 aren't evaluating opportunities - they're solving problems they face at work every single day. Not "I like project management tools." Instead: "I'm a PM at a design agency and Asana doesn't work for creative workflows - I built this for us." You're already living it.
List 5 achievements in this niche worth mentioning at dinner.
AI builds the MVP for you. You don't need to love coding for 1000 hours - you need 3-5 anchor stories from actually living this problem. Target market in 2025: people solving problems they face every day at work. Not PMs brainstorming. Not hobbyists. People who ARE the customer. "I'm passionate about fitness apps" = worthless. "I'm a CrossFit coach and existing apps don't track metcons right" = gold. Proof you lived it > enthusiasm for the space.
How sustainable is it long-term? Can competitors easily copy it?
Product moats made sense when software cost $50k to build. Now? AI copies features in 2 hours. There are already 5 competitors for every idea. Broad solutions lose to niche ones. Not "accounting software" (QuickBooks owns it). Instead: "Accounting software for Shopify sellers doing $100k-$500k" - narrow enough that 50 people know your name. They can't copy being the trusted expert in your micro-niche.
List 10 people you could text TODAY who would try this.
Features are copied in 2 hours with AI. Zero product moats exist. Your moat = you know 10-50 people in your hyper-niche personally. Not "I'll build for freelancers" (too broad, Stripe owns it). Instead: "I'm a freelance video editor and can text 30 other editors right now who need this." Solving your own work problem = you already have access. PMs guessing at problems = zero access. Customer access beats product features.
How easy is it to validate this idea?
This let PMs score 8/10 by saying "we'll do a Product Hunt launch." Those don't work anymore. The question assumes validation = testing if the problem exists. Wrong game in 2025. Problem exists. Question is: can you reach the 50-500 people in your hyper-niche who have this specific variant? Not "freelancers need invoicing" but "video editors who work with brands need kill fees in contracts" - and you know where 100 of them hang out.
Who is the most powerful person who would recommend this?
Building costs $20/month now. Getting found is the entire game. One advocate with 50k followers in your micro-niche = 1000 cold emails. This question forces hyper-specificity: not "build HR software" but "build scheduling software for dental hygienists" and you know THE influencer hygienists follow. Solving your own work problem = you're already IN the community. PMs researching markets = zero advocates. Access to influence > ability to build.
What advantage do you have against competitors?
Vague PM-speak. "I kind of know some bloggers" scores 4/10 but gives zero distribution. Building is the easy part now - AI does it for $20/month. Getting found is everything. You can't fake expertise in 2025 because algorithms surface credible creators. Either you ARE the expert people follow in this micro-niche, or you're invisible. Not "I'll build CRM software." Instead: "I'm the guy who posts daily about real estate CRMs - 2,000 agents follow me."
Describe your organic content/distribution plan (no ads).
AI made building trivial. Distribution is binary now. "I know some people" = 0/10. "I AM the expert they follow" = 10/10. This is why we target builders solving their own daily work problems - you're already creating content about it, already known in the micro-niche. Not building "the next Salesforce." Building "Salesforce for orthodontists" and you ARE an orthodontist posting daily. Your channel is the moat. Features are commoditized.
This question did not exist in 2015 framework
How would you get paid THIS WEEK without building anything?
This question didn't exist in 2015 because building was the hard part. Now building is $20/month - monetization proves you have access. If you're solving your own work problem, you can sell it manually this week to 3 coworkers or peers. If you're a PM guessing at markets, you can't. Forces you to be the customer. "I'll build invoicing for freelancers" = can't sell manually. "I'm a freelance designer, here's a $50 Notion template" = proves access. Manual MVP > coded MVP.
Six validation areas that test distribution capability, not just product viability
Can you put your face on this publicly?
Faceless brands are harder to grow organically. Reputation risk reveals commitment.
List 5 achievements in this niche
Real credibility vs résumé padding. People buy from experts, not enthusiasts.
Name 10 people you could text today
Direct access to buyers is your unfair advantage. The first 10 customers validate everything.
Who is the most powerful person who would recommend this?
Distribution through influence beats paid ads. One advocate = 1000 cold calls.
Specific content/distribution plan without ads
Paid ads are not a moat. Organic channels compound over time.
How would you get paid this week?
If you cannot sell it manually first, software will not fix it.
Followers ≠ Customers. Likes ≠ Revenue. Building an audience that doesn't buy is worse than having no audience.
Failed products are public. Your next launch is harder if this one flops. Test distribution before burning credibility. Learn how to launch without embarrassing yourself →
Spray-and-pray social media is not a strategy. Pick one channel, prove it works, then scale.
AI lets you build anything. The question isn't "can you build it?" It's "can you sell it?"
Can I build this technically?
Can I get 10 customers
in 30 days?
Get a distribution score for your idea. Takes 10 minutes. Stored locally. Private by design.
See how different aesthetics change the entire feel of your product. Each one tells a different story.
VIEW PATTERNS →